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Trump’s peace deal hinges on minerals, militias – and megawatts

CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
CONGO-KINSHASA MINERAL-SECURITY DEAL: Hope at Ruzizi hydro, chaos at Rubaya coltan mine. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

A White House-brokered agreement promises regional calm and economic integration, but success depends on dislodging rebels and securing mining rights

Speaking at the White House on 27 June, during the signing of a new peace agreement by the Rwandan and Congolese foreign ministers, President Donald Trump declared that no previous United States president had attempted to broker peace between Rwanda and Congo-Kinshasa – and that none could have succeeded as he had. Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Africa Envoy Massad Boulos all echoed the sentiment.

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Tagwirei riles ruling party rivals

Kudakwashe Tagwirei. Pic: @ZANUPF_Official

As Harare’s top oligarch edges into politics, senior ZANU-PF cadres push back – and opposition chief Chamisa prepares a comeback

The president’s favourite oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, is rapidly transitioning from shadowy financier to top public figure – usually wearing the signature striped scarf in national colours introduced by...


How Turkana’s promises of oil riches became a pipe dream

Tullow Oil Kenya August 2019. Pic: @TullowOilplc
Tullow Oil Kenya August 2019. Pic: @TullowOilplc

The oil companies arrived with pledges of roads, schools and clean water. Instead there has been negligible production but lots of environmental damage

More than 15 years have passed since British-based Tullow Oil came to the remote plains of northern Kenya, raising expectations of transformation. Once oil was confirmed, it was...


The deadly stalemate deepens

SUDAN'S DEVASTATING WAR DRAGS ON: Generals Burhan and Hemeti continue fighting as outsiders stage talks. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN'S DEVASTATING WAR DRAGS ON: Generals Burhan and Hemeti continue fighting as outsiders stage talks. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

As both sides escalate drone warfare backed by foreign patrons, civilians are trapped in a cycle of violence, revenge and economic devastation

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have clawed back large tracts of land in the heart of the country forcing the Rapid Support Forces to refocus on western Sudan...


Would-be mediators mull a new initiative

Massad Boulos. Pic: @US_SrAdvisorAF
Massad Boulos. Pic: @US_SrAdvisorAF

US officials have sounded out the combatants and their backers over a new peace plan – but nobody is jumping into fresh talks

A flurry of peace initiatives put to the warring factions in Sudan and their main sponsors is yet to move the needle. But it may prompt would-be mediators...


Politicians seek a way out of the impasse

SOMALIA'S POLITICAL CONSULTATION: Elections due next year as insurgency drags on. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SOMALIA'S POLITICAL CONSULTATION: Elections due next year as insurgency drags on. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

With Al Shabaab holding its own, the viability of next year’s elections diminishing, and donors in dismay, the constitution has moved centre stage

Mogadishu’s politicians are ending a period of bitter dispute and beginning to talk to each other as they all conclude that the conditions are not yet right for...


Bonn summit exposes rifts and inertia on climate action

Closing Plenary, June Climate Meetings, Bonn, 25 June 2025. Pic: UN Climate Change – Peter Kronish
Closing Plenary, June Climate Meetings, Bonn, 25 June 2025. Pic: UN Climate Change – Peter Kronish

Geopolitical rivalries are sinking the UN treaty to cut carbon emissions and protect developing economies ahead of the Brazil summit in November

The UN’s preparatory climate summit in Bonn from 16-26 June offered a grim portent of what may happen in the main event – the UN COP30 climate summit...


Splits appear in Biya regime’s façade

Bello Bouba Maïgari and Akere Muna. Pic: @AkereMuna
Bello Bouba Maïgari and Akere Muna. Pic: @AkereMuna

Once-stalwart loyalists are breaking with the regime just as opposition strength swells ahead of the October elections. The President’s team is nervous

The previously confident guardians of Paul Biya’s presidency are looking concerned as they absorb the impact of the defection of two previously dependable, even crucial, allies – Bello...


Brussels is flailing as Sudan’s expanding war triggers new wave of migration

Attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. Pic: fabian-berg.photo / Alamy
Attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. Pic: fabian-berg.photo / Alamy

Boats from eastern Libya accounted for over 90% of illegal Mediterranean crossings after Benghazi warlord rekindled ties with Sudanese rebels

Data showing that irregular crossings from Tunisia and Libya fell by 59% to 66,766 in 2024, prompted Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the European Union to trumpet...


Trump family allies broker security and mining deals in Central Africa

Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, Marco Rubio, and Olivier Nduhungirehe. Pic: @onduhungirehe
Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, Marco Rubio, and Olivier Nduhungirehe. Pic: @onduhungirehe

Multiple mining investments and a hydropower project are riding on Kigali and Kinshasa making peace but details on military arrangements remain thin

US Africa Envoy Massad Boulos and US hedge fund executive Gentry Beach – both with close links to US President Donald J Trump’s family – were prime movers...


Putschist faces his own mutiny

Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: @NIGER_CNSP
Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: @NIGER_CNSP

Nigériens are two weeks away from the second anniversary of the putsch that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, breaking military partnerships with France, the United States and the European...


Oil report blames officials

Pic: ViennaFrame / stock.adobe.com
Pic: ViennaFrame / stock.adobe.com

A report by Gambia’s lawmakers has blamed three state officials for interfering with a police investigation into the importation and sale of 36,000 tonnes of sanctioned Russian diesel...


Death toll mounts after protests

Kenya protests video still
Kenya protests video still

With police barricading every available route into Nairobi’s central business district and effectively suspending business activity across the country, the hotspots of protests marking the 35th anniversary of...


As protests mount, state repression goes regional

Protesters in Nakuru, Kenya, 25 June, 2025. Pic: © James Wakibia/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy
Protesters in Nakuru, Kenya, 25 June, 2025. Pic: © James Wakibia/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy

Economic hardship and youth mobilisation are driving a new opposition movement online and on the streets

A year after ‘Gen Z’ activists stormed parliament in Nairobi shaking the foundations of President William Ruto’s legitimacy, a new round of protests on 25 June were greeted...

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Ministers pin their faith on tax collectors

East Africa: Revenue growth key For bigger budgets. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
East Africa: Revenue growth key For bigger budgets. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Squeezed by creditors and angry citizens, the region’s finance chiefs are looking for ways to boost public spending

Political opposition is rising across the region, much of it fuelled by government austerity policies and there is no let-up in sight. Last year’s mass protests in Kenya...


Aziz falls – while his closest ally thrives

Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani. Pic: @CheikhGhazouani
Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani. Pic: @CheikhGhazouani

Jailed for corruption, the ex-president has lost his battle with his former right-hand man and the political elite continues to consolidate power